MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE DESIGN OF A FLOOD PROTECTION LEVEE
| dc.contributor.author | Castano, Eugenio | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2016-09-13T22:05:18Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2016-09-13T22:05:18Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 1976-06 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10150/620118 | |
| dc.description.abstract | The model choice problem in Hydrology is illustrated by means of the optimum levee design for flat rivers along a confluence reach. Special attention is given to the selection of a probability distribution for the joint flood stages. The optimality criterion used is the minimization of construction plus expected flood damage costs. The main assumption in the mathematical model is that the levee profile is uniquely determined as a function of the levee heights at the extremes of the reach; thus the problem is reduced to the determination of the optimum pair of extreme levee heights. The selection of a probability distribution of flood stages, from a set of distributions estimated from the partial duration series, is performed using either one of two selection procedures: likelihood of the Chi -square statistic and sample likelihoods. A composite distribution, taking into account the model uncertainty, is also derived. The methodology presented is applied to the remodeling of the levee on the west bank of the Zagyva River, in Hungary. A sensitivity analysis is performed, using the best ranking distributions according to the two model choice procedures. The composite distribution appears to offer a reasonable choice. | |
| dc.description.sponsorship | The work upon which this thesis is based was supported in part by funds provided by the National Science Foundation grants: ENG -74 -20462 entitled "Sensitivity of Decisions in Resource Engineering to Assumptions of Multivariate Models," and GF -38183 entitled, "Cooperative Research on Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Hydrologic and other Resource Systems." | en |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | en |
| dc.publisher | Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ) | en |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | Technical Reports on Hydrology and Water Resources, No. 28 | en |
| dc.rights | Copyright © Arizona Board of Regents | en |
| dc.source | Provided by the Department of Hydrology and Water Resources. | en |
| dc.subject | Flood control | en |
| dc.subject | Levees -- Design and construction. | en |
| dc.subject | Zagyva River (Hungary) -- Levees | en |
| dc.title | MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE DESIGN OF A FLOOD PROTECTION LEVEE | en_US |
| dc.type | text | en |
| dc.type | Technical Report | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Department of Hydrology & Water Resources, The University of Arizona | en |
| dc.description.collectioninformation | This title from the Hydrology & Water Resources Technical Reports collection is made available by the Department of Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences and the University Libraries, University of Arizona. If you have questions about titles in this collection, please contact repository@u.library.arizona.edu. | en |
| refterms.dateFOA | 2018-09-11T14:47:08Z | |
| html.description.abstract | The model choice problem in Hydrology is illustrated by means of the optimum levee design for flat rivers along a confluence reach. Special attention is given to the selection of a probability distribution for the joint flood stages. The optimality criterion used is the minimization of construction plus expected flood damage costs. The main assumption in the mathematical model is that the levee profile is uniquely determined as a function of the levee heights at the extremes of the reach; thus the problem is reduced to the determination of the optimum pair of extreme levee heights. The selection of a probability distribution of flood stages, from a set of distributions estimated from the partial duration series, is performed using either one of two selection procedures: likelihood of the Chi -square statistic and sample likelihoods. A composite distribution, taking into account the model uncertainty, is also derived. The methodology presented is applied to the remodeling of the levee on the west bank of the Zagyva River, in Hungary. A sensitivity analysis is performed, using the best ranking distributions according to the two model choice procedures. The composite distribution appears to offer a reasonable choice. |
