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    The Brier Rule Is not a Good Measure of Epistemic Utility (and Other Useful Facts about Epistemic Betterness)

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    brier_rule_draft_AJP_deanon.pdf
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    Final Accepted Manuscript
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    Author
    Fallis, Don
    Lewis, Peter J.
    Affiliation
    Univ Arizona
    Issue Date
    2015-12-14
    Keywords
    Bayesianism
    Brier score
    epistemic utility
    formal epistemology
    law of likelihoods
    proper scoring rules
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Publisher
    ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
    Citation
    The Brier Rule Is not a Good Measure of Epistemic Utility (and Other Useful Facts about Epistemic Betterness) 2015, 94 (3):576 Australasian Journal of Philosophy
    Journal
    Australasian Journal of Philosophy
    Rights
    © 2015 Australasian Association of Philosophy.
    Collection Information
    This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.
    Abstract
    Measures of epistemic utility are used by formal epistemologists to make determinations of epistemic betterness among cognitive states. The Brier rule is the most popular choice (by far) among formal epistemologists for such a measure. In this paper, however, we show that the Brier rule is sometimes seriously wrong about whether one cognitive state is epistemically better than another. In particular, there are cases where an agent gets evidence that definitively eliminates a false hypothesis (and the probabilities assigned to the other hypotheses stay in the same ratios), but where the Brier rule says that things have become epistemically worse. Along the way to this 'elimination experiment' counter-example to the Brier rule as a measure of epistemic utility, we identify several useful monotonicity principles for epistemic betterness. We also reply to several potential objections to this counter-example.
    Note
    Published online: 14 Dec 2015; 18 Month Embargo.
    ISSN
    0004-8402
    1471-6828
    DOI
    10.1080/00048402.2015.1123741
    Version
    Final accepted manuscript
    Additional Links
    http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00048402.2015.1123741
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1080/00048402.2015.1123741
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