Pacific sea level rise patterns and global surface temperature variability
AffiliationUniv Arizona, Dept Geosci
MetadataShow full item record
PublisherAMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
CitationPacific sea level rise patterns and global surface temperature variability 2016, 43 (16):8662 Geophysical Research Letters
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Rights©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Collection InformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at email@example.com.
AbstractDuring 1998-2012, climate change and sea level rise (SLR) exhibit two notable features: a slowdown of global surface warming (hiatus) and a rapid SLR in the tropical western Pacific. To quantify their relationship, we analyze the long-term control simulations of 38 climate models. We find a significant and robust correlation between the east-west contrast of dynamic sea level (DSL) in the Pacific and global mean surface temperature (GST) variability on both interannual and decadal time scales. Based on linear regression of the multimodel ensemble mean, the anomalously fast SLR in the western tropical Pacific observed during 1998-2012 indicates suppression of a potential global surface warming of 0.16 degrees 0.06 degrees C. In contrast, the Pacific contributed 0.29 degrees 0.10 degrees C to the significant interannual GST increase in 1997/1998. The Pacific DSL anomalies observed in 2015 suggest that the strong El Nino in 2015/2016 could lead to a 0.21 degrees 0.07 degrees C GST jump.
NotePublished: 18 August 2016; 6 Month Embargo.
VersionFinal published version
SponsorsStrategic University Research Partnership Program of the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory [1492484/NNN12AA01C]