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dc.contributor.authorMonahan, William B.
dc.contributor.authorRosemartin, Alyssa
dc.contributor.authorGerst, Katharine L.
dc.contributor.authorFisichelli, Nicholas A.
dc.contributor.authorAult, Toby
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Mark D.
dc.contributor.authorGross, John E.
dc.contributor.authorWeltzin, Jake F.
dc.date.accessioned2017-01-23T16:59:54Z
dc.date.available2017-01-23T16:59:54Z
dc.date.issued2016-10
dc.identifier.citationClimate change is advancing spring onset across the U.S. national park system 2016, 7 (10):e01465 Ecosphereen
dc.identifier.issn21508925
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/ecs2.1465
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/622065
dc.description.abstractMany U.S. national parks are already at the extreme warm end of their historical temperature distributions. With rapidly warming conditions, park resource management will be enhanced by information on seasonality of climate that supports adjustments in the timing of activities such as treating invasive species, operating visitor facilities, and scheduling climate-related events (e.g., flower festivals and fall leaf-viewing). Seasonal changes in vegetation, such as pollen, seed, and fruit production, are important drivers of ecological processes in parks, and phenology has thus been identified as a key indicator for park monitoring. Phenology is also one of the most proximate biological responses to climate change. Here, we use estimates of start of spring based on climatically modeled dates of first leaf and first bloom derived from indicator plant species to evaluate the recent timing of spring onset (past 10-30 yr) in each U.S. natural resource park relative to its historical range of variability across the past 112 yr (1901-2012). Of the 276 high latitude to subtropical parks examined, spring is advancing in approximately three-quarters of parks (76%), and 53% of parks are experiencing "extreme" early springs that exceed 95% of historical conditions. Our results demonstrate how changes in climate seasonality are important for understanding ecological responses to climate change, and further how spatial variability in effects of climate change necessitates different approaches to management. We discuss how our results inform climate change adaptation challenges and opportunities facing parks, with implications for other protected areas, by exploring consequences for resource management and planning.
dc.description.sponsorshipNPS landscape dynamics monitoring project, NPScape; NASA-NPS Landscape Climate Change Vulnerability Project (NASA Applied Sciences program) [10-BIOCLIM10-0034]; United States Geological Survey [G14AC00405]en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherWILEY-BLACKWELLen
dc.relation.urlhttp://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/ecs2.1465en
dc.rights© 2016 Monahan et al. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.en
dc.subjectclimate changeen
dc.subjectlandscape contexten
dc.subjectmonitoringen
dc.subjectnational parksen
dc.subjectphenologyen
dc.subjectprotected areasen
dc.subjectSpecial Feature: Science for Our National Parks' Second Centuryen
dc.subjectspring indexen
dc.subjectUnited Statesen
dc.titleClimate change is advancing spring onset across the U.S. national park systemen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentUniv Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environmen
dc.identifier.journalEcosphereen
dc.description.collectioninformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.en
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen
dc.contributor.institutionInventory and Monitoring Division; National Park Service; Natural Resource Stewardship and Science; 1201 Oakridge Drive Fort Collins Colorado 80525 USA
dc.contributor.institutionNational Coordinating Office; USA National Phenology Network; 1311 E 4th Street Tucson Arizona 85721 USA
dc.contributor.institutionNational Coordinating Office; USA National Phenology Network; 1311 E 4th Street Tucson Arizona 85721 USA
dc.contributor.institutionClimate Change Response Program; National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science; 1201 Oakridge Drive Fort Collins Colorado 80525 USA
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences; Cornell University; 1113 Bradfield Ithaca New York 14853 USA
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Geography; University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee; P. O. Box 413 Milwaukee Wisconsin 53201 USA
dc.contributor.institutionClimate Change Response Program; National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science; 1201 Oakridge Drive Fort Collins Colorado 80525 USA
dc.contributor.institutionU.S. Geological Survey; Tucson Arizona 85721 USA
refterms.dateFOA2018-06-23T21:58:42Z
html.description.abstractMany U.S. national parks are already at the extreme warm end of their historical temperature distributions. With rapidly warming conditions, park resource management will be enhanced by information on seasonality of climate that supports adjustments in the timing of activities such as treating invasive species, operating visitor facilities, and scheduling climate-related events (e.g., flower festivals and fall leaf-viewing). Seasonal changes in vegetation, such as pollen, seed, and fruit production, are important drivers of ecological processes in parks, and phenology has thus been identified as a key indicator for park monitoring. Phenology is also one of the most proximate biological responses to climate change. Here, we use estimates of start of spring based on climatically modeled dates of first leaf and first bloom derived from indicator plant species to evaluate the recent timing of spring onset (past 10-30 yr) in each U.S. natural resource park relative to its historical range of variability across the past 112 yr (1901-2012). Of the 276 high latitude to subtropical parks examined, spring is advancing in approximately three-quarters of parks (76%), and 53% of parks are experiencing "extreme" early springs that exceed 95% of historical conditions. Our results demonstrate how changes in climate seasonality are important for understanding ecological responses to climate change, and further how spatial variability in effects of climate change necessitates different approaches to management. We discuss how our results inform climate change adaptation challenges and opportunities facing parks, with implications for other protected areas, by exploring consequences for resource management and planning.


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