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    Comment on “Advective transport in heterogeneous aquifers: Are proxy models predictive?” by A. Fiori, A. Zarlenga, H. Gotovac, I. Jankovic, E. Volpi, V. Cvetkovic, and G. Dagan

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    Author
    Neuman, Shlomo P.
    Affiliation
    Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Atmospher Sci
    Issue Date
    2016-07
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Publisher
    AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
    Citation
    Comment on “Advective transport in heterogeneous aquifers: Are proxy models predictive?” by A. Fiori, A. Zarlenga, H. Gotovac, I. Jankovic, E. Volpi, V. Cvetkovic, and G. Dagan 2016, 52 (7):5701 Water Resources Research
    Journal
    Water Resources Research
    Rights
    © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
    Collection Information
    This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.
    Abstract
    Fiori et al. (2015) examine the predictive capabilities of (among others) two "proxy'' non-Fickian transport models, MRMT (Multi-Rate Mass Transfer) and CTRW (Continuous-Time Random Walk). In particular, they compare proxy model predictions of mean breakthrough curves (BTCs) at a sequence of control planes with near-ergodic BTCs generated through two-and three-dimensional simulations of nonreactive, mean-uniform advective transport in single realizations of stationary, randomly heterogeneous porous media. The authors find fitted proxy model parameters to be nonunique and devoid of clear physical meaning. This notwithstanding, they conclude optimistically that "i. Fitting the proxy models to match the BTC at [one control plane] automatically ensures prediction at downstream control planes [and thus] ii .... the measured BTC can be used directly for prediction, with no need to use models underlain by fitting.'' I show that (a) the authors' findings follow directly from (and thus confirm) theoretical considerations discussed earlier by Neuman and Tartakovsky (2009), which (b) additionally demonstrate that proxy models will lack similar predictive capabilities under more realistic, non-Markovian flow and transport conditions that prevail under flow through nonstationary (e.g., multiscale) media in the presence of boundaries and/or nonuniformly distributed sources, and/or when flow/transport are conditioned on measurements.
    Note
    First published: 30 July 2016; 6 month embargo.
    ISSN
    00431397
    DOI
    10.1002/2016WR019093
    Version
    Final published version
    Additional Links
    http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016WR019093
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1002/2016WR019093
    Scopus Count
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