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dc.contributor.authorLeblanc, David C.
dc.date.accessioned2017-02-17T23:20:31Z
dc.date.available2017-02-17T23:20:31Z
dc.date.issued2010-07
dc.identifier.citationLeBlanc, D.C., 2010. Evaluation of goodness-of-fit statistics from PRECON to estimate the strength of multivariate tree growth-climate associations. Tree-Ring Research 66(2):135-139.en
dc.identifier.issn2162-4585
dc.identifier.issn1536-1098
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/622622
dc.description.abstractAlthough the primary purpose of response function analysis is to identify climate variables that have significant associations with tree radial growth, many researchers are also interested in assessing the strength of these associations. Existing response function programs use a liberal criterion to determine how many climate variables should be included in the analysis. The resulting response function models include a large number of predictor variables. The objective of this analysis is to determine if these response function models are over-fitted to the data used to calibrate them, resulting in over-estimation of strength of associations. PRECON was used to produce response functions for white oak chronologies from n = 149 sites, with separate response functions using 34 monthly climate variables or 10 seasonal climate variables. An analysis of goodness-of-fit statistics for response function calibration provided strong evidence of over-estimation of strength of associations. The degree of over-estimation was greater when 34 monthly climate variables were included in the models compared to models with10 season variables. There was much less evidence of over-fitting for the R-verif statistic that reflects strength of association between predicted and actual tree-ring indices that were not included in model calibration. The PRECON R-verif statistic is the best measure of the strength of multivariate growth-climate associations currently available.
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.publisherTree-Ring Societyen
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.treeringsociety.orgen
dc.rightsCopyright © Tree-Ring Society. All rights reserved.en
dc.subjectDendrochronologyen
dc.subjectTree Ringsen
dc.subjectResponse Function Analysisen
dc.subjectQuercus albaen
dc.subjectWhite Oaken
dc.subjectDendroclimatologyen
dc.titleEvaluation Of Goodness-Of-Fit Statistics From PRECON To Estimate The Strength Of Multivariate Tree Growth-Climate Associationsen_US
dc.typeArticleen
dc.typetexten
dc.contributor.departmentDept. of Biology, Ball State Universityen
dc.identifier.journalTree-Ring Researchen
dc.description.collectioninformationThis item is part of the Tree-Ring Research (formerly Tree-Ring Bulletin) archive. For more information about this peer-reviewed scholarly journal, please email the Editor of Tree-Ring Research at editor@treeringsociety.org.en
refterms.dateFOA2018-06-15T00:28:15Z
html.description.abstractAlthough the primary purpose of response function analysis is to identify climate variables that have significant associations with tree radial growth, many researchers are also interested in assessing the strength of these associations. Existing response function programs use a liberal criterion to determine how many climate variables should be included in the analysis. The resulting response function models include a large number of predictor variables. The objective of this analysis is to determine if these response function models are over-fitted to the data used to calibrate them, resulting in over-estimation of strength of associations. PRECON was used to produce response functions for white oak chronologies from n = 149 sites, with separate response functions using 34 monthly climate variables or 10 seasonal climate variables. An analysis of goodness-of-fit statistics for response function calibration provided strong evidence of over-estimation of strength of associations. The degree of over-estimation was greater when 34 monthly climate variables were included in the models compared to models with10 season variables. There was much less evidence of over-fitting for the R-verif statistic that reflects strength of association between predicted and actual tree-ring indices that were not included in model calibration. The PRECON R-verif statistic is the best measure of the strength of multivariate growth-climate associations currently available.


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