Adaptive Estimation Techniques for Resident Space Object Characterization

Abstract

This thesis investigates using adaptive estimation techniques to determine unknown model parameters such as size and surface material reflectivity, while estimating position, velocity, attitude, and attitude rates of a resident space object. This work focuses on the application of these methods to the space situational awareness problem. This thesis proposes a unique method of implementing a top-level gating network in a dual-layer hierarchical mixture of experts. In addition it proposes a decaying learning parameter for use in both the single layer mixture of experts and the dual-layer hierarchical mixture of experts. Both a single layer mixture of experts and dual-layer hierarchical mixture of experts are compared to the multiple model adaptive estimation in estimating resident space object parameters such as size and reflectivity. The hierarchical mixture of experts consists of macromodes. Each macromode can estimate a different parameter in parallel. Each macromode is a single layer mixture of experts with unscented Kalman filters used as the experts. A gating network in each macromode determines a gating weight which is used as a hypothesis tester. Then the output of the macromode gating weights go to a top level gating weight to determine which macromode contains the most probable model. The measurements consist of astrometric and photometric data from non-resolved observations of the target gathered via a telescope with a charge coupled device camera. Each filter receives the same measurement sequence. The apparent magnitude measurement model consists of the Ashikhmin Shirley bidirectional reflectance distribution function. The measurements, process models, and the additional shape, mass, and inertia characteristics allow the algorithm to predict the state and select the most probable fit to the size and reflectance characteristics based on the statistics of the measurement residuals and innovation covariance. A simulation code is developed to test these adaptive estimation techniques. The feasibility of these methods will be demonstrated in this thesis.