A juvenile–adult population model: climate change, cannibalism, reproductive synchrony, and strong Allee effects

Abstract

We study a discrete time, structured population dynamic model that is motivated by recent field observations concerning certain life history strategies of colonial- nesting gulls, specifically the glaucouswinged gull ( Larus glaucescens). The model focuses on mechanisms hypothesized to play key roles in a population's response to degraded environment resources, namely, increased cannibalism and adjustments in reproductive timing. We explore the dynamic consequences of these mechanics using a juvenile- adult structure model. Mathematically, the model is unusual in that it involves a high co- dimension bifurcation at R0 = 1 which, in turn, leads to a dynamic dichotomy between equilibrium states and synchronized oscillatory states. We give diagnostic criteria that determine which dynamic is stable. We also explore strong Allee effects caused by positive feedback mechanisms in the model and the possible consequence that a cannibalistic population can survive when a non- cannibalistic population cannot.