Is Tropical Cyclone Surge, Not Intensity, What Kills So Many People in South Asia?
AffiliationUniv Arizona, Sch Govt & Publ Policy
MetadataShow full item record
PublisherAMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
CitationIs Tropical Cyclone Surge, Not Intensity, What Kills So Many People in South Asia? 2017, 9 (2):171 Weather, Climate, and Society
JournalWeather, Climate, and Society
Rights© 2017 American Meteorological Society.
Collection InformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at email@example.com.
AbstractThis paper statistically examines the hypothesis that the level of storm surge, not storm intensity, is primarily responsible for the large number of tropical cyclone fatalities in SouthAsia. Because the potential causal link between intensity and surge can confound statistical inference, the authors develop two fatality models using different assumptions on the relationship between storm surge and intensity. The authors find evidence that storm surge is a primary killer of people in South Asia relative to storm intensity. In a surge-pressure independence model, it is found that a 10-cm increase in storm surge results in a 14% increase in the number of fatalities. In a surge-pressure dependence model, a 10-cm increase in the level of surge not driven by minimumcentral pressure (MCP) leads to 9.9% increase in the number of fatalities. By contrast, a one-millibar (1 hPa) decrease in MCP leads to a 7.3% increase in the number of fatalities, some of which is also attributable to storm surge. In South Asia, adaptation strategies should target a higher level of storm surge instead of higher-intensity storms. Policies to combat surge include permanent relocation, temporary evacuation, changes in building structures, and coastal fortification.
Note6 month embargo; Published Online: 15 February 2017
VersionFinal published version