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    Is Tropical Cyclone Surge, Not Intensity, What Kills So Many People in South Asia?

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    wcas-d-16-0059.1.pdf
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    Author
    Seo, S. Niggol
    Bakkensen, Laura A.
    Affiliation
    Univ Arizona, Sch Govt & Publ Policy
    Issue Date
    2017-04
    
    Metadata
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    Publisher
    AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
    Citation
    Is Tropical Cyclone Surge, Not Intensity, What Kills So Many People in South Asia? 2017, 9 (2):171 Weather, Climate, and Society
    Journal
    Weather, Climate, and Society
    Rights
    © 2017 American Meteorological Society.
    Collection Information
    This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.
    Abstract
    This paper statistically examines the hypothesis that the level of storm surge, not storm intensity, is primarily responsible for the large number of tropical cyclone fatalities in SouthAsia. Because the potential causal link between intensity and surge can confound statistical inference, the authors develop two fatality models using different assumptions on the relationship between storm surge and intensity. The authors find evidence that storm surge is a primary killer of people in South Asia relative to storm intensity. In a surge-pressure independence model, it is found that a 10-cm increase in storm surge results in a 14% increase in the number of fatalities. In a surge-pressure dependence model, a 10-cm increase in the level of surge not driven by minimumcentral pressure (MCP) leads to 9.9% increase in the number of fatalities. By contrast, a one-millibar (1 hPa) decrease in MCP leads to a 7.3% increase in the number of fatalities, some of which is also attributable to storm surge. In South Asia, adaptation strategies should target a higher level of storm surge instead of higher-intensity storms. Policies to combat surge include permanent relocation, temporary evacuation, changes in building structures, and coastal fortification.
    Note
    6 month embargo; Published Online: 15 February 2017
    ISSN
    1948-8327
    1948-8335
    DOI
    10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0059.1
    Version
    Final published version
    Additional Links
    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0059.1
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0059.1
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    UA Faculty Publications

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