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    Density estimates of monarch butterflies overwintering in central Mexico

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    Author
    Thogmartin, Wayne E.
    Diffendorfer, Jay E.
    López-Hoffman, Laura
    Oberhauser, Karen
    Pleasants, John
    Semmens, Brice X.
    Semmens, Darius
    Taylor, Orley R.
    Wiederholt, Ruscena
    Affiliation
    Univ Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environm
    Issue Date
    2017-04-26
    Keywords
    Mixture distribution
    Monarch butterfly
    Uncertainty modeling
    Danaus plexxipus
    Density estimation
    
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    Publisher
    PEERJ INC
    Citation
    Density estimates of monarch butterflies overwintering in central Mexico 2017, 5:e3221 PeerJ
    Journal
    PeerJ
    Rights
    © 2017 Thogmartin et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.
    Collection Information
    This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.
    Abstract
    Given the rapid population decline and recent petition for listing of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus L.) under the Endangered Species Act, an accurate estimate of the Eastern, migratory population size is needed. Because of difficulty in counting individual monarchs, the number of hectares occupied by monarchs in the overwintering area is commonly used as a proxy for population size, which is then multiplied by the density of individuals per hectare to estimate population size. There is, however, considerable variation in published estimates of overwintering density, ranging from 6.9-60.9 million ha(-1). We develop a probability distribution for overwinter density of monarch butterflies from six published density estimates. The mean density among the mixture of the six published estimates was similar to 27.9 million butterflies ha(-1) (95% CI [2.4-80.7] million ha(-1)); the mixture distribution is approximately log-normal, and as such is better represented by the median (21.1 million butterflies ha(-1)). Based upon assumptions regarding the number of milkweed needed to support monarchs, the amount of milkweed (Asciepias spp.) lost (0.86 billion stems) in the northern US plus the amount of milkweed remaining (1.34 billion stems), we estimate >1.8 billion stems is needed to return monarchs to an average population size of 6 ha. Considerable uncertainty exists in this required amount of milkweed because of the considerable uncertainty occurring in overwinter density estimates. Nevertheless, the estimate is on the same order as other published estimates, The studies included in our synthesis differ substantially by year, location, method, and measures of precision. A better understanding of the factors influencing overwintering density across space and time would be valuable for increasing the precision of conservation recommendations.
    ISSN
    2167-8359
    PubMed ID
    28462031
    DOI
    10.7717/peerj.3221
    Version
    Final published version
    Sponsors
    John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis of the United States Geological Survey
    Additional Links
    https://peerj.com/articles/3221/
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.7717/peerj.3221
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