Potential uses of Numerical Simulation for the Modelling of Civil Conflict
Affiliation
Univ Arizona, Sch Govt & Publ PolicyIssue Date
2017-01-01
Metadata
Show full item recordPublisher
WALTER DE GRUYTER GMBHCitation
Potential uses of Numerical Simulation for the Modelling of Civil Conflict 2017, 23 (1) Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public PolicyRights
Copyright © 2016, Walter de Gruyter GmbH.Collection Information
This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.Abstract
This paper explores ways in which civil conflict can be simulated using numerical methods. A general two-party model of conflict is developed by extending an approach proposed by [Christia, F., (2012), Alliance Formation in Civil Wars, Cambridge University Press, New York], which is based on a metric of the 'relative power' that exists between the state and a rebel group. Various definitions of relative power are considered and one of these is chosen to illustrate different types of two-sided armed conflict, namely direct-fire, guerrilla and asymmetric warfare. The additional suggestion of Christia that random or stochastic events can lead to unexpected conflict outcomes is also further extended in this paper. The inclusion in the model of terms describing concurrent rebel recruitment of civilians and state deployment of troops are then described. Examples are presented for various hypothetical cases. It is demonstrated that numerical simulation techniques have great potential for modelling civil war. The Christia approach is shown to provide an excellent basis from which numerical models of civil conflict can be built and from which the progress of a conflict can usefully be visualised graphically.Note
12 month embargo; Published Online: 19 Nov 2016ISSN
1554-85971079-2457
Version
Final published versionSponsors
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)Additional Links
https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/peps.2017.23.issue-1/peps-2016-0035/peps-2016-0035.xmlae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1515/peps-2016-0035