The Relation Between Firm Dividend Policy and the Predictability of Cash Effective Tax Rates

Abstract

I examine the relation between a firm's dividend policy and its strategic tax decisions. I posit that the capital market pressure associated with paying a dividend leads dividend-paying firms to seek predictable cash flows. I specifically focus on the volatility of a firm's cash effective tax rate (ETR) due to the observability, large size, variability, and periodicity of cash tax payments. Consistent with dividend payments altering a firm's strategic tax preferences, I find that firms that pay a higher dividend exhibit more predictable cash ETRs. Further, I find that the predictability of a dividend-initiating (eliminating) firm's cash ETR subsequently increases (decreases). Additionally, I find that, consistent with prior research suggesting that financially constrained firms "borrow" cash from their tax account, financial constraint moderates the positive relation between the predictability of a firm's cash ETR and its dividend payments. Importantly, my results hold for firms initiating a dividend in response to the exogenous shock of the Bush tax cuts. Finally, I also examine specific tax strategies dividend-paying firms use to help increase the predictability of their cash tax payments. My results contribute to the academic literature by examining whether, and how, dividend-paying firms alter their strategic tax decisions. Additionally, I contribute to ongoing public policy debates over the value of dividend payments by demonstrating a positive relation between dividend payments and the predictability of a firm's cash tax payments.