Counterterrorism Tactics: The Relationship Between Leadership Decapitation and Civilian Abuse During Civil Wars

Abstract

Does a relationship exist between leadership decapitation and the abuse of civilians during a civil war? This project creates a new data set in combination with existing data on leadership change and civil war termination to determine whether leadership decapitation in rebel groups that use terrorist strategies affects the likelihood of civilian abuse. A study is done on 44 cases of decapitation where the leader of a rebel group was arrested, killed, or replaced during the course of their respective nation’s civil war. This project also conducted a case study on the behavior of a rebel group in the country of Algeria during their civil war. The results show that most groups utilize the same strategies before and after the decapitation of their leader and also attack the same targets. Looking at the short term after the date of decapitation, groups are more likely to utilize the same attack method and attack the same targets. The results also indicate that leadership decapitation does not alter the tactic utilized by a group during a civil war after the date of decapitation. Leadership decapitation also does not increase the likelihood of civilian abuse within one, two, or three months after the date of decapitation. If a group was abusing civilians before the death, arrest, or replacement of their leader, then they will continue to abuse civilians after the date of decapitation. Ultimately, understanding the causes behind the violent methods used by terrorist and rebel groups will help promote conflict resolution and prevent the use of violent means against civilians.