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dc.contributor.authorTorn, Ryan D.*
dc.contributor.authorRomine, Glen S.*
dc.contributor.authorGalarneau, Thomas J.*
dc.date.accessioned2017-08-01T16:25:41Z
dc.date.available2017-08-01T16:25:41Z
dc.date.issued2017-05
dc.identifier.citationSensitivity of Dryline Convection Forecasts to Upstream Forecast Errors for Two Weakly Forced MPEX Cases 2017, 145 (5):1831 Monthly Weather Reviewen
dc.identifier.issn0027-0644
dc.identifier.issn1520-0493
dc.identifier.doi10.1175/MWR-D-16-0457.1
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/625051
dc.description.abstractThe sensitivity of convective forecasts along the Texas dryline to upstream forecast fields at earlier lead times is evaluated for two consecutive days (27-28 May) characterized by no clear synoptic forcing for convection initiation (CI) during the 2013 Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) by applying the ensemble-based sensitivity technique to convection-allowing WRF ensemble forecasts. For both cases, the members with stronger convection are characterized by higher water vapor just above the top of the boundary layer, which is associated with lower convective inhibition (CIN) at the time of CI. Forecast convection is sensitive to the lower-tropospheric water vapor and zonal wind at earlier lead times farther south along the dryline, such that increasing the water vapor and/or making the wind more easterly is associated with more convection. For 28 May, the water vapor along the dryline is also sensitive to the convection that occurs around 0600 UTC, which leads to cold pool-induced surface divergence that subsequently shifts the dryline north or south. Ensemble members that correctly have decreased convection in the Texas Panhandle on 28 May have more accurate forecasts of water vapor and meridional wind with respect to dropwindsondes in the sensitive region 9 h prior to CI compared to members with more extensive convection. Reducing the 0-h water vapor within the sensitive region can suppress convection in members with extensive convection; however, increasing the 0-h water vapor does not lead to more convection in members without convection.
dc.description.sponsorshipNSF [1239787]; NOAA [NA14OAR4830172]en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherAMER METEOROLOGICAL SOCen
dc.relation.urlhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0457.1en
dc.rights© 2017 American Meteorological Society.en
dc.titleSensitivity of Dryline Convection Forecasts to Upstream Forecast Errors for Two Weakly Forced MPEX Casesen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentUniv Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Atmospher Scien
dc.identifier.journalMonthly Weather Reviewen
dc.description.note6 month embargo; Published Online: 19 April 2017en
dc.description.collectioninformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.en
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York
dc.contributor.institutionNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
refterms.dateFOA2017-10-20T00:00:00Z
html.description.abstractThe sensitivity of convective forecasts along the Texas dryline to upstream forecast fields at earlier lead times is evaluated for two consecutive days (27-28 May) characterized by no clear synoptic forcing for convection initiation (CI) during the 2013 Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) by applying the ensemble-based sensitivity technique to convection-allowing WRF ensemble forecasts. For both cases, the members with stronger convection are characterized by higher water vapor just above the top of the boundary layer, which is associated with lower convective inhibition (CIN) at the time of CI. Forecast convection is sensitive to the lower-tropospheric water vapor and zonal wind at earlier lead times farther south along the dryline, such that increasing the water vapor and/or making the wind more easterly is associated with more convection. For 28 May, the water vapor along the dryline is also sensitive to the convection that occurs around 0600 UTC, which leads to cold pool-induced surface divergence that subsequently shifts the dryline north or south. Ensemble members that correctly have decreased convection in the Texas Panhandle on 28 May have more accurate forecasts of water vapor and meridional wind with respect to dropwindsondes in the sensitive region 9 h prior to CI compared to members with more extensive convection. Reducing the 0-h water vapor within the sensitive region can suppress convection in members with extensive convection; however, increasing the 0-h water vapor does not lead to more convection in members without convection.


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