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dc.contributor.authorFlesch, Aaron D.*
dc.contributor.authorRosen, Philip C.*
dc.contributor.authorHolm, Peter, 1959-*
dc.date.accessioned2017-11-08T17:16:50Z
dc.date.available2017-11-08T17:16:50Z
dc.date.issued2017-08-17
dc.identifier.citationLong-term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation 2017 Global Change Biologyen
dc.identifier.issn13541013
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/gcb.13813
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/626024
dc.description.abstractUnderstanding how climatic variation affects animal populations and communities is essential for addressing threats posed by climate change, especially in systems where impacts are projected to be high. We evaluated abundance dynamics of five common species of diurnal lizards over 25 years in a Sonoran Desert transition zone where precipitation decreased and temperature increased across time, and assessed hypotheses for the influence of climatic flux on spatiotemporal variation in abundances. We repeatedly surveyed lizards in spring and summer of each year at up to 32 sites, and used hierarchical mixture models to estimate detection probabilities, abundances, and population growth rates. Among terrestrial species, abundances of a short-lived, winter-spring breeder increased markedly by an estimated 2375285% across time, while two larger spring-summer breeders with higher thermal preferences declined by up to 64%. Abundances of two arboreal species that occupy shaded and thus sheltered microhabitats fluctuated but did not decline systematically. Abundances of all species increased with precipitation at short lag times (151.5 yrs) likely due to enhanced food availability, but often declined after periods of high precipitation at longer lag times (254 yrs) likely due to predation and other biotic pressures. Although rising maximum daily temperatures (Tmax) are expected to drive global declines of lizards, associations with Tmax were variable and weak for most species. Instead, abundances of all species declined with rising daily minimum temperatures, suggesting degradation of cool refugia imposed widespread metabolic or other costs. Our results suggest climate warming and drying are having major impacts on lizard communities by driving declines of species with traits that augment exposure to abiotic extremes and by modifying species interactions. The complexity of patterns we report indicate that evaluating and responding to the influence of climate change on biodiversity must consider a broad array of ecological processes.
dc.description.sponsorshipU.S. National Park Service (NPS)en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherWileyen
dc.relation.urlhttp://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.13813en
dc.rights© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltden
dc.subjectAridlandsen
dc.subjectclimate changeen
dc.subjectectothermsen
dc.subjectN-mixture modelsen
dc.subjectpopulation trendsen
dc.subjectprecipitationen
dc.subjectSonoran Deserten
dc.subjecttemperatureen
dc.titleLong-term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variationen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentUniv Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Desert Laben
dc.identifier.journalGlobal Change Biologyen
dc.description.note12 month embargo; published online: 17 August 2017en
dc.description.collectioninformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.en
dc.eprint.versionFinal accepted manuscripten
dc.contributor.institutionThe Desert Laboratory; School of Natural Resources and the Environment; University of Arizona; Tucson AZ USA
dc.contributor.institutionSchool of Natural Resources and the Environment; University of Arizona; Tucson AZ USA
dc.contributor.institutionNational Park Service; Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument; Ajo AZ USA
html.description.abstractUnderstanding how climatic variation affects animal populations and communities is essential for addressing threats posed by climate change, especially in systems where impacts are projected to be high. We evaluated abundance dynamics of five common species of diurnal lizards over 25 years in a Sonoran Desert transition zone where precipitation decreased and temperature increased across time, and assessed hypotheses for the influence of climatic flux on spatiotemporal variation in abundances. We repeatedly surveyed lizards in spring and summer of each year at up to 32 sites, and used hierarchical mixture models to estimate detection probabilities, abundances, and population growth rates. Among terrestrial species, abundances of a short-lived, winter-spring breeder increased markedly by an estimated 2375285% across time, while two larger spring-summer breeders with higher thermal preferences declined by up to 64%. Abundances of two arboreal species that occupy shaded and thus sheltered microhabitats fluctuated but did not decline systematically. Abundances of all species increased with precipitation at short lag times (151.5 yrs) likely due to enhanced food availability, but often declined after periods of high precipitation at longer lag times (254 yrs) likely due to predation and other biotic pressures. Although rising maximum daily temperatures (Tmax) are expected to drive global declines of lizards, associations with Tmax were variable and weak for most species. Instead, abundances of all species declined with rising daily minimum temperatures, suggesting degradation of cool refugia imposed widespread metabolic or other costs. Our results suggest climate warming and drying are having major impacts on lizard communities by driving declines of species with traits that augment exposure to abiotic extremes and by modifying species interactions. The complexity of patterns we report indicate that evaluating and responding to the influence of climate change on biodiversity must consider a broad array of ecological processes.


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