Russia's changing influence in post-Soviet states: an evolution from 1991 to 2014

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to determine how Russia’s influence in the post-Soviet states has changed since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 to 2014. This research also looks at whether the methods for influence have changed during the period. The fourteen post-Soviet states are evaluated both individually and in regard to their regions, which are designated at the Caucasus region, the Central Asia region, and the Eastern-Central Europe region. First, the historical and ethnic relationship of each post-Soviet state with Russia had to be established at an individual and regional level. Then, data regarding diplomacy, alliances, militarized-interstate disputes, shared intergovernmental organization membership, and bilateral trade are analyzed to determine trends in how Russia interacts with the post-Soviet states and how it changes over time. Ultimately, the trends appear to move from more militarized interactions to focus more on interactions through trade and intergovernmental organizations. There are distinct differences by states and regions; Russia has more contentious relations with Ukraine in the Eastern-Central Europe region and Georgia in the Caucasus region. Russia also has more influence in legacy states, particularly those that share a history with Russia, have a large percentage of ethnic Russians, and have a significant Russian-speaking population.