Modeling the Beaver Creek research watershed Apache-Sitgreaves national forests

Abstract

Data from seven research watersheds were used to develop three methods of predicting annual runoff from the gauged Beaver Creek watershed in the eastern White Monntains of Arizona. A computer program was designed to optimize the parameters of watershed area, main channel slope and annual precipitation from the research watersheds, thus developing equations predictive of annual runoff from these basins, over a 20-year study period. Using Geographical Information Systems, areas within Beaver Creek that resembled the research watershed were determined. The research watershed equations were applied to these parallel areas and streamflow volumes for all Beaver Creek areas were summed into a predicted annual volume for the entire Beaver Creek watershed. Method 1, using the complete twenty years of precipitation data, had reasonably accurate results in predicting annual streamflow from both the research watersheds and Beaver Creek. Method 2, using a Monsoon Index Factor, had better predictions from the research watersheds, but did not improve upon Method l's Beaver Creek predictions. Method 3, omitting four extreme precipitation years from the twenty year data set, had the best results of the three methods, with very good predictions from the research watersheds and a large improvement in Beaver Creek predictions. Recommendations are included on when and where to use the models in each method, and ways in which to improve the study.