Evaluating experimental streamflow forecasts for use in reservoir modeling on the Colorado River basin

Abstract

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation uses a 24-month planning and operations model to simulate reservoir operations, energy generation, and water demands on the Colorado River Basin. The Lower Basin's 24-month Study model does not currently make use of weather forecasts, nor does it use information about future climate. To aid in -better management of scarce water resources, especially during periods of drought, we have demonstrated a methodology for incorporating seasonal forecasts and climate information in the inflow time series for the 24-month Study model. The method uses a hydrology model forced with different sets of meteorological data. The streamflow scenarios output from the hydrology model are then used as input to the 24-month Study. The important outputs of the 24-month Study model are Lake Mead inflows and elevations. The methodology presented by this research makes it possible to incorporate outside information into the water resources decision-making process.