Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases
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Yin_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Res ...
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AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNIONCitation
Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases 2018, 45 (2):1069 Geophysical Research LettersJournal
Geophysical Research LettersRights
© 2018. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License.Collection Information
This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.Abstract
A 0.24 degrees C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Nino that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.Note
6 month embargo; published online: 26 January 2018ISSN
00948276Version
Final published versionSponsors
NOAA [NA13OAR4310128]; NSF [1304083, 1513411]Additional Links
http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL076500ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1002/2017GL076500
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as © 2018. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License.