Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorYin, J.
dc.contributor.authorOverpeck, Jonathan T.
dc.contributor.authorPeyser, Cheryl
dc.contributor.authorStouffer, Ronald
dc.date.accessioned2018-03-26T16:27:10Z
dc.date.available2018-03-26T16:27:10Z
dc.date.issued2018-01-28
dc.identifier.citationBig Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases 2018, 45 (2):1069 Geophysical Research Lettersen
dc.identifier.issn00948276
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/2017GL076500
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/627121
dc.description.abstractA 0.24 degrees C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Nino that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.
dc.description.sponsorshipNOAA [NA13OAR4310128]; NSF [1304083, 1513411]en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherAMER GEOPHYSICAL UNIONen
dc.relation.urlhttp://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL076500en
dc.rights© 2018. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License.en
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subjectrecord warm global temperatureen
dc.subjectocean heat releaseen
dc.subjectEl Ninoen
dc.subjectmodel simulation and projectionen
dc.titleBig Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releasesen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentUniv Arizona, Dept Geoscien
dc.identifier.journalGeophysical Research Lettersen
dc.description.note6 month embargo; published online: 26 January 2018en
dc.description.collectioninformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.en
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Geosciences; University of Arizona; Tucson AZ USA
dc.contributor.institutionSchool for Environment and Sustainability; University of Michigan; Ann Arbor MI USA
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Geosciences; University of Arizona; Tucson AZ USA
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Geosciences; University of Arizona; Tucson AZ USA
refterms.dateFOA2018-07-26T00:00:00Z
html.description.abstractA 0.24 degrees C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Nino that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.


Files in this item

Thumbnail
Name:
Yin_et_al-2018-Geophysical_Res ...
Size:
2.078Mb
Format:
PDF
Description:
Final Published Version

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

© 2018. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License.
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as © 2018. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License.