Long-term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation
Affiliation
School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of ArizonaIssue Date
2017-12Keywords
Aridlandsclimate change
ectotherms
N-mixture models
population trends
precipitation
Sonoran Desert
temperature
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Show full item recordPublisher
WileyCitation
Flesch A.D., P.C. Rosen, and P. Holm. 2017. Long-term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation. Global Change Biology 2017; 23:5492–5508 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13813Journal
Global Change BiologyRights
© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.Collection Information
This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.Abstract
Understanding how climatic variation affects animal populations and communities is essential for addressing threats posed by climate change, especially in systems where impacts are projected to be high. We evaluated abundance dynamics of five common species of diurnal lizards over 25 years in a Sonoran Desert transition zone where precipitation decreased and temperature increased across time, and assessed hypotheses for the influence of climatic flux on spatiotemporal variation in abundances. We repeatedly surveyed lizards in spring and summer of each year at up to 32 sites, and used hierarchical mixture models to estimate detection probabilities, abundances, and population growth rates. Among terrestrial species, abundances of a short-lived, winter– spring breeder increased markedly by an estimated 237%–285% across time, while two larger spring–summer breeders with higher thermal preferences declined by up to 64%. Abundances of two arboreal species that occupy shaded and thus sheltered microhabitats fluctuated but did not decline systematically. Abundances of all species increased with precipitation at short lag times (1–1.5 years) likely due to enhanced food availability, but often declined after periods of high precipitation at longer lag times (2–4 years) likely due to predation and other biotic pressures. Although rising maximum daily temperatures (Tmax) are expected to drive global declines of lizards, associations with Tmax were variable and weak for most species. Instead, abundances of all species declined with rising daily minimum temperatures, suggesting degradation of cool refugia imposed widespread metabolic or other costs. Our results suggest climate warming and drying are having major impacts on lizard communities by driving declines in species with traits that augment exposure to abiotic extremes and by modifying species interactions. The complexity of patterns we report indicates that evaluating and responding to the influence of climate change on biodiversity must consider a broad array of ecological processes.Note
12 month embargo; published online: 16 July 2017ISSN
1354-1013PubMed ID
28712135Version
Final accepted manuscriptSponsors
United States National Park Service (NPS)ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1111/gcb.13813
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