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    Long-term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation

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    Name:
    Flesch Rosen and Holm 2017 - ...
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    Flesch Rosen and Holm 2017 - ...
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    Author
    Flesch, Aaron
    Holm, Peter, 1959-
    Rosen, Phlip
    Affiliation
    School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona
    Issue Date
    2017-12
    Keywords
    Aridlands
    climate change
    ectotherms
    N-mixture models
    population trends
    precipitation
    Sonoran Desert
    temperature
    
    Metadata
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    Publisher
    Wiley
    Citation
    Flesch A.D., P.C. Rosen, and P. Holm. 2017. Long-term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation. Global Change Biology 2017; 23:5492–5508 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13813
    Journal
    Global Change Biology
    Rights
    © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
    Collection Information
    This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.
    Abstract
    Understanding how climatic variation affects animal populations and communities is essential for addressing threats posed by climate change, especially in systems where impacts are projected to be high. We evaluated abundance dynamics of five common species of diurnal lizards over 25 years in a Sonoran Desert transition zone where precipitation decreased and temperature increased across time, and assessed hypotheses for the influence of climatic flux on spatiotemporal variation in abundances. We repeatedly surveyed lizards in spring and summer of each year at up to 32 sites, and used hierarchical mixture models to estimate detection probabilities, abundances, and population growth rates. Among terrestrial species, abundances of a short-lived, winter– spring breeder increased markedly by an estimated 237%–285% across time, while two larger spring–summer breeders with higher thermal preferences declined by up to 64%. Abundances of two arboreal species that occupy shaded and thus sheltered microhabitats fluctuated but did not decline systematically. Abundances of all species increased with precipitation at short lag times (1–1.5 years) likely due to enhanced food availability, but often declined after periods of high precipitation at longer lag times (2–4 years) likely due to predation and other biotic pressures. Although rising maximum daily temperatures (Tmax) are expected to drive global declines of lizards, associations with Tmax were variable and weak for most species. Instead, abundances of all species declined with rising daily minimum temperatures, suggesting degradation of cool refugia imposed widespread metabolic or other costs. Our results suggest climate warming and drying are having major impacts on lizard communities by driving declines in species with traits that augment exposure to abiotic extremes and by modifying species interactions. The complexity of patterns we report indicates that evaluating and responding to the influence of climate change on biodiversity must consider a broad array of ecological processes.
    Note
    12 month embargo; published online: 16 July 2017
    ISSN
    1354-1013
    PubMed ID
    28712135
    DOI
    10.1111/gcb.13813
    Version
    Final accepted manuscript
    Sponsors
    United States National Park Service (NPS)
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1111/gcb.13813
    Scopus Count
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    UA Faculty Publications

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