Gupta, Hoshin V.
AffiliationUniv Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Atmospher Sci
MetadataShow full item record
PublisherAMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
CitationSadegh, M., Moftakhari, H., Gupta, H. V., Ragno, E., Mazdiyasni, O., Sanders, B., Matthew, R., & AghaKouchak, A. (2018). Multihazard scenarios for analysis of compound extreme events. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 5470–5480. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077317
JournalGEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Rights©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Collection InformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
AbstractCompound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers (e.g., ocean and fluvial flooding, drought, and heat waves) leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenarios of extremes and compound events are ignored. In this paper, we review the existing multivariate design and hazard scenario concepts and introduce a novel copula-based weighted average threshold scenario for an expected event with multiple drivers. The model can be used for obtaining multihazard design and risk assessment scenarios and their corresponding likelihoods. The proposed model offers uncertainty ranges of most likely compound hazards using Bayesian inference. We show that the uncertainty ranges of design quantiles might be large and may differ significantly from one copula model to the other. We also demonstrate that the choice of marginal and copula functions may profoundly impact the multihazard design values. A robust analysis should account for these uncertainties within and between multivariate models that translate into multihazard design quantiles.
Note6 month embargo; published online: 11 May 2018
VersionFinal published version
SponsorsCalifornia Energy Commission [500-15-005]; National Science Foundation Hazards-SEES Program [DMS 1331611]; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise Program [NA16NOS4780206]