Simultaneous Regional Detection of Land-Use Changes and Elevated GHG Levels: The Case of Spring Precipitation in Tropical South America

Abstract

A decline in dry season precipitation over tropical South America has a large impact on ecosystem health of the region. Results here indicate that the magnitude of negative trends in dry season precipitation in the past decades exceeds the estimated range of trends due to natural variability of the climate system defined in both the preindustrial climate and during the 850-1850 millennium. The observed drying is associated with an increase in vapor pressure deficit. The univariate detection analysis shows that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing has a systematic influence in negative 30-year trends of precipitation ending in 1998 and later on. The bivariate attribution analysis demonstrates that forcing by elevated GHG levels and land-use change are attributed as key causes for the observed drying during 1983-2012 over the southern Amazonia and central Brazil. We further show that the effect of GS signal (GHG and sulfate aerosols) based on RCP4.5 scenario already has a detectable influence in the observed drying. Thus, we suggest that the recently observed drier dry season is a feature which will continue and intensify in the course of unfolding anthropogenic climate change. Such change could have profound societal and ecosystem impacts over the region. Plain Language Summary This study uses statistical techniques to attribute the recently observed drier dry season over tropical South America to external drivers of climate change, both human-induced and naturally occurring. A decline in dry season precipitation has a large impact on ecosystem health of the region. Thus, attributing the forced components of the observed drier dry season to external drivers of climate change is of great practical importance to societies. Results indicate that the observed drying is well beyond the range of trends due to natural variability of the climate system and is found to be systematically and externally forced. The forcing by elevated greenhouse gas levels and land-use change (mainly deforestation) are attributed as key causes for the observed drying over the southern Amazonia and central Brazil. We further demonstrate that the recently observed drier dry season is a feature which will continue and intensify in the course of unfolding anthropogenic climate change. Such an assessment is critical for adaptation planning and mitigation strategies.