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PublisherOXFORD UNIV PRESS
CitationMarina Agranov, Jacob K Goeree, Julian Romero, Leeat Yariv; What Makes Voters Turn Out: The Effects of Polls and Beliefs, Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 16, Issue 3, 1 June 2018, Pages 825–856, https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx023
Rights© The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of European Economic Association.
Collection InformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
AbstractWe use laboratory experiments to test for one of the foundations of the rational voter paradigm-that voters respond to probabilities of being pivotal. We exploit a setup that entails stark theoretical effects of information concerning the preference distribution (as revealed through polls) on costly participation decisions. We find that voting propensity increases systematically with subjects' predictions of their preferred alternative's advantage. Consequently, pre-election polls do not exhibit the detrimental welfare effects that extant theoretical work predicts. They lead to more participation by the expected majority and generate more landslide elections.
Note24 month embargo; published online: 3 August 2017
VersionFinal accepted manuscript
SponsorsEuropean Research Council (ERC) [ESEI-249433]; National Science Foundation [SES 0963583]; Henry and Betty Moore Foundation