AffiliationUniv Arizona, Dept Biostat & Epidemiol
MetadataShow full item record
PublisherAMER STATISTICAL ASSOC
CitationBillheimer, D. (2019). Predictive Inference and Scientific Reproducibility. The American Statistician, 73(sup1), 291-295.
Rights© 2019 The Author. Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), whichpermits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.
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AbstractMost statistical analyses use hypothesis tests or estimation about parameters to form inferential conclusions. I think this is noble, but misguided. The point of view expressed here is that observables are fundamental, and that the goal of statistical modeling should be to predict future observations, given the current data and other relevant information. Further, the prediction of future observables provides multiple advantages to practicing scientists, and to science in general. These include an interpretable numerical summary of a quantity of direct interest to current and future researchers, a calibrated prediction of what's likely to happen in future experiments, a prediction that can be either "corroborated" or "refuted" through experimentation, and avoidance of inference about parameters; quantities that exists only as convenient indices of hypothetical distributions. Finally, the predictive probability of a future observable can be used as a standard for communicating the reliability of the current work, regardless of whether confirmatory experiments are conducted. Adoption of this paradigm would improve our rigor for scientific accuracy and reproducibility by shifting our focus from "finding differences" among hypothetical parameters to predicting observable events based on our current scientific understanding.
NoteOpen access article
VersionFinal published version