Importance of variability in initial soil moisture and rainfalls on slope stability
Author
Cai, Jing-senJim Yeh, Tian-Chyi
Yan, E-chuan
Tang, Rui-Xuan
Hao, Yong-Hong
Huang, Shao-Yang
Wen, Jet-Chau
Affiliation
Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Atmospher SciIssue Date
2019-04Keywords
Slope stability uncertaintyVariability
Initial soil pore water pressure
Rainfall characteristics
Large-uncertainty zone
Low-reliability zone
Metadata
Show full item recordPublisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BVCitation
Cai, J. S., Yeh, T. C. J., Yan, E. C., Tang, R. X., Hao, Y. H., Huang, S. Y., & Wen, J. C. (2019). Importance of variability in initial soil moisture and rainfalls on slope stability. Journal of Hydrology, 571, 265-278.Journal
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGYRights
© 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Collection Information
This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.Abstract
A first-order moment analysis is developed to investigate the temporal and spatial propagation of uncertainty of slope stability during rainfall, considering spatial variabilities in initial soil water pressure and soil hydraulic properties, and temporal variability of rainfall. Results of the analysis indicate that the uncertainties resulting from variabilities in initial soil pore water pressure distributions and rainfalls are comparable with that from the variability in soil hydraulic properties. Further, the evolution of slope stability uncertainty is driven by the mean flow field, and a localized large-uncertainty zone along the slope profile could form, leading to a localized low-reliability zone, which may lead to the failure of the slope. In particular, when the slope is close to saturation, the reliability of the stability analysis of any elevation of the slope is low even at early rainfall times. On the other hand, when the slope is unsaturated and heavy rainfalls occur, the low-reliability zone exists at shallow parts of the slope at early times. The results also show that greater unreliability exists at shallow depths at early times when the rainfall has a descending trend in comparison with uniform and increasing trend. Lastly, the low-reliability zone is always near the impermeable bedrock if rainfall persists.Note
24 month embargo; available online 2 February 2019.ISSN
00221694Version
Final accepted manuscriptSponsors
National Natural Science Foundation of China [41672313, 41807264]; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) [CUG170686]; China Scholarship Council [201406410032]; Global Expert award through Tianjin Normal University from the Thousand Talents Plan of Tianjin CityAdditional Links
https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169419301131ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.01.046