Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Abundance Model Improved With Relative Humidity and Precipitation-Driven Egg Hatching

Abstract

We propose an improved Aedes aegypti (L.) abundance model that takes into account the effect of relative humidity (RH) on adult survival, as well as rainfall-triggered egg hatching. The model uses temperature-dependent development rates described in the literature as well as documented estimates for mosquito survival in environments with high RH, and for egg desiccation. We show that combining the two additional components leads to better agreement with surveillance trap data and with dengue incidence reports in various municipalities of Puerto Rico than incorporating either alone or neither. Capitalizing on the positive association between disease incidence and vector abundance, this improved model is therefore useful to estimate incidence of Ae. aegypti-borne diseases in locations where the vector is abundant year-round.