Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorZhao, Jijun
dc.contributor.authorHu, Xiangyu
dc.date.accessioned2019-07-25T23:41:27Z
dc.date.available2019-07-25T23:41:27Z
dc.date.issued2019-06-13
dc.identifier.citationZhao, J., & Hu, X. (2019). The complex transmission seasonality of hand, foot, and mouth disease and its driving factors. BMC infectious diseases, 19(1), 521.en_US
dc.identifier.issn1471-2334
dc.identifier.pmid31196004
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s12879-019-4153-6
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/633522
dc.description.abstractBackground: The transmission rate seasonality is an important index for transmission dynamics in many childhood infections, and has been widely studied in industrialized countries. However, it has been neglected in the study of pathogens in China. Methods: To understand the transmission dynamics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), we examined the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD in three provinces, Henan, Anhui and Chongqing, in China, using a dynamical stochastic SIR model. We investigated potential driving factors, including school terms, the Chinese Spring Festival period, meteorological factors and population flux for their effects on the HFMD transmission seasonality using multiple regression models. Results: The transmission rate of HFMD had complex seasonality with one large major peak in March and one small peak in autumn. School terms, the Chinese Spring Festival period, population flux and meteorological factors had combined effects on the HFMD transmission seasonality in mainland China. The school terms reflects the seasonal contact rate in Children, while the population flux and the Chinese Spring Festival period reflect the seasonal contact rate in population. They drove HFMD transmission rate seasonality in different time periods of the year in China. Contact rate seasonality in population dominated effects on HFMD transmission in February and March. The dramatic increase in transmission rate during February coincides with the Chinese Spring Festival period and high population flux in this month. The contact rate seasonality in children dominated effects on the transmission in the other months of the year in Chongqing. Meteorological factors can not solely explain the seasonality in HFMD transmission in mainland China; however, they may have combined effects with school terms and the highway passenger traffic on the transmission rate in Anhui during the fall semester. Conclusion: The transmission rate of HFMD in three provinces in China had complex seasonality. The Chinese Spring Festival period, population flux and (or) school terms explained the majority of the transmission rate seasonality of HFMD, and they drove HFMD transmission rate seasonality in different time periods of the year. The Chinese Spring Festival period dominantly caused the dramatic increase of the HFMD transmission rate during February.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipShandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation, China [ZR2018MH037]en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherBMCen_US
dc.rights© The Author(s). 2019 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.en_US
dc.subjectChinese spring festivalen_US
dc.subjectHand foot and mouth diseaseen_US
dc.subjectPopulation fluxen_US
dc.subjectTransmission rateen_US
dc.titleThe complex transmission seasonality of hand, foot, and mouth disease and its driving factorsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.contributor.departmentUniv Arizona, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biolen_US
dc.identifier.journalBMC INFECTIOUS DISEASESen_US
dc.description.noteOpen access journalen_US
dc.description.collectioninformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.en_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.source.journaltitleBMC infectious diseases
refterms.dateFOA2019-07-25T23:41:27Z


Files in this item

Thumbnail
Name:
s12879-019-4153-6.pdf
Size:
2.098Mb
Format:
PDF
Description:
Final Published Version

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record