Cognitive Biases about Climate Variability in Smallholder Farming Systems in Zambia
Author
Waldman, Kurt B.Vergopolan, Noemi
Attari, Shahzeen Z.
Sheffield, Justin
Estes, Lyndon D.
Caylor, Kelly K.
Evans, Tom P.
Affiliation
Univ Arizona, Sch Geog & DevIssue Date
2019-04
Metadata
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AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOCCitation
Waldman, K.B., N. Vergopolan, S.Z. Attari, J. Sheffield, L.D. Estes, K.K. Caylor, and T.P. Evans, 2019: Cognitive Biases about Climate Variability in Smallholder Farming Systems in Zambia. Wea. Climate Soc., 11, 369–383, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0050.1Journal
WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETYRights
© 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).Collection Information
This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.Abstract
Given the varying manifestations of climate change over time and the influence of climate perceptions on adaptation, it is important to understand whether farmer perceptions match patterns of environmental change from observational data. We use a combination of social and environmental data to understand farmer perceptions related to rainy season onset. Household surveys were conducted with 1171 farmers across Zambia at the end of the 2015/16 growing season eliciting their perceptions of historic changes in rainy season onset and their heuristics about when rain onset occurs. We compare farmers' perceptions with satellite-gauge-derived rainfall data from the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station dataset and hyper-resolution soil moisture estimates from the HydroBlocks land surface model. We find evidence of a cognitive bias, where farmers perceive the rains to be arriving later, although the physical data do not wholly support this. We also find that farmers' heuristics about rainy season onset influence maize planting dates, a key determinant of maize yield and food security in sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings suggest that policy makers should focus more on current climate variability than future climate change.Note
6 month embargo; published online: 29 March 2019ISSN
1948-8327Version
Final published versionSponsors
National Science Foundation [SES-1360463, BCS-1115009, BCS-1026776]ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1175/wcas-d-18-0050.1