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dc.contributor.authorMcCauley, Lisa A
dc.contributor.authorRobles, Marcos D
dc.contributor.authorWoolley, Travis
dc.contributor.authorMarshall, Robert M
dc.contributor.authorKretchun, Alec
dc.contributor.authorGori, David F
dc.date.accessioned2019-09-13T21:08:57Z
dc.date.available2019-09-13T21:08:57Z
dc.date.issued2019-07-22
dc.identifier.citationMcCauley, L. A., Robles, M. D., Woolley, T., Marshall, R. M., Kretchun, A., and Gori, D. F. . 2019. Large‐scale forest restoration stabilizes carbon under climate change in Southwest United States. Ecological Applications 00( 00):e01979. 10.1002/eap.1979en_US
dc.identifier.issn1051-0761
dc.identifier.pmid31332869
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/eap.1979
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/634197
dc.description.abstractHigher tree density, more fuels, and a warmer, drier climate have caused an increase in the frequency, size, and severity of wildfires in western U.S. forests. There is an urgent need to restore forests across the western United States. To address this need, the U.S. Forest Service began the Four Forest Restoration Initiative (4FRI) to restore four national forests in Arizona. The objective of this study was to evaluate how restoration of 400,000 ha under the 4FRI program and projected climate change would influence carbon dynamics and wildfire severity from 2010 to 2099. Specifically, we estimated forest carbon fluxes, carbon pools and wildfire severity under a moderate and fast 4FRI implementation schedule and compared those to status quo and no-harvest scenarios using the LANDIS-II simulation model and climate change projections. We found that the fast-4FRI scenario showed early decreases in ecosystem carbon due to initial thinning/prescribed fire treatments, but total ecosystem carbon increased by 9-18% over no harvest by the end of the simulation. This increased carbon storage by 6.3-12.7 million metric tons, depending on the climate model, equating to removal of carbon emissions from 55,000 to 110,000 passenger vehicles per year until the end of the century. Nearly half of the additional carbon was stored in more stable soil pools. However, climate models with the largest predicted temperature increases showed declines by late century in ecosystem carbon despite restoration. Our study uses data from a real-world, large-scale restoration project and indicates that restoration is likely to stabilize carbon and the benefits are greater when the pace of restoration is faster.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipAnne Ray Foundation; Regional Approaches to Climate Change (REACCH) project; Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SECASC)en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherWILEYen_US
dc.rights© 2019 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Ecological Society of America. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.en_US
dc.subjectLANDIS-IIen_US
dc.subjectclimate changeen_US
dc.subjectforest carbonen_US
dc.subjectforest restorationen_US
dc.subjectponderosa pine southwesten_US
dc.subjectwildfireen_US
dc.titleLarge-scale forest restoration stabilizes carbon under climate change in Southwest United Statesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.contributor.departmentUniv Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environmen_US
dc.identifier.journalECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONSen_US
dc.description.noteOpen access article.en_US
dc.description.collectioninformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.en_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.source.journaltitleEcological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America
refterms.dateFOA2019-09-13T21:08:58Z


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