Some Factors in Tucson Summer Rainfall

Abstract

This report describes an investigation of several synoptic and airmass factors as they relate to the occurrence and amount of daily rainfall at Tucson, Arizona. Of the variables considered as predictors of rain later the same day, three stand out as useful: total precipitable water, Shownlter Stability Index, and distance south of the last closed contour of the circumpolar vortex at 500 mb. Better than 90 percent correct short-term forecasts appear attainable for occurrence of rain, while about twice as many correct forecasts as might be expected by chance were obtained in forecasting rain amount class.