• Paleoearthquakes as Anchor Points in Bayesian Radiocarbon Deposition Models: A Case Study from the Dead Sea

      Kagan, Elisa J.; Stein, Mordechai; Agnon, Amotz; Ramsey, Christopher Bronk (Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona, 2010-01-01)
      The Bayesian statistical method of the OxCal v 4.1 program is used to construct an age-depth model for a set of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon ages of organic debris collected from a late Holocene Dead Sea stratigraphic section (the Ein Feshkha Nature Reserve). The model is tested for a case where no prior earthquake information is applied and for a case where there is incorporation of known ages of 4 prominent historical earthquakes as chronological anchor points along the section. While the anchor-based model provided a tightly constrained age-depth regression, the "non-anchored" model still produces a correlation where most of the 68% or 95% age ranges of the 52 seismites can be correlated to historical earthquakes. This presents us with the opportunity for high-resolution paleoseismic analysis and comparison between various sites.