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    Biologically‐Relevant Trends in Springtime Temperatures Across the United States

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    Name:
    Crimmins_et_al-2019-Geophysica ...
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    Description:
    Final Published Version
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    Author
    Crimmins, Theresa M. cc
    Crimmins, Michael A.
    Affiliation
    Univ Arizona, Dept Environm Sci
    Univ Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environm
    Issue Date
    2019-11-06
    Keywords
    growing degree days
    thresholds
    spring season
    phenology
    trends
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Publisher
    AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
    Citation
    Crimmins, T. M., & Crimmins, M. A. (2019). Biologically‐relevant trends in spring time temperatures across the United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 12,377–12,387. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085251
    Journal
    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
    Rights
    Copyright © 2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
    Collection Information
    This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.
    Abstract
    Long‐term trends in temperature—a primary driver of phenology—are typically evaluated using monthly or seasonal averages. However, accumulated warmth, rather than average temperature, cues phenological events; further, the amount of heat necessary to trigger activity is species‐specific. We evaluated trends in the timing of three heat accumulation thresholds encompassing spring‐season biological activity in the conterminous United States over a 70‐year period to document changes from a biologically relevant perspective. The Southwest, Northeast, and Northwest regions exhibit the strongest advancements. Rates of change vary among thresholds within many regions, resulting in temporal compression and lengthening within the season. Further, in the Eastern United States, the days between when a single threshold is met in the south and north are decreasing; in the West, the opposite pattern is occurring. These trends generally match long‐term observations of species' phenology, underscoring the value of this approach for documenting biologically relevant changes in temperature.
    Note
    6 month embargo; published online: 6 November 2019
    ISSN
    0094-8276
    DOI
    10.1029/2019gl085251
    Version
    Final published version
    Sponsors
    National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [DBI-0735191, DBI-1265383]; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program [NA17OAR4310288]; Climate Assessment for the Southwest program at the University of Arizona
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1029/2019gl085251
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    UA Faculty Publications

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