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dc.contributor.authorAnderson, Talia G
dc.contributor.authorAnchukaitis, Kevin J
dc.contributor.authorPons, Diego
dc.contributor.authorTaylor, Matthew
dc.date.accessioned2019-12-18T18:33:11Z
dc.date.available2019-12-18T18:33:11Z
dc.date.issued2019-12
dc.identifier.citationTalia G Anderson et al 2019 Environ. Res. Lett. 14 124016en_US
dc.identifier.issn1748-9326
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/1748-9326/ab5023
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/636447
dc.description.abstractAnecdotal evidence suggests that the timing and intensity of the Central American Midsummer Drought (MSD) may be changing, while observations from limited meteorological station data and paleoclimate reconstructions show neither significant nor consistent trends in seasonal rainfall. Climate model simulations project robust future drying across the region, but internal variability is expected to dominate until the end of the century. Here we use a high-resolution gridded precipitation dataset to investigate these apparent discrepancies and to quantify the spatiotemporal complexities of the MSD. We detect spatially variable trends in MSD timing, the amount of rainy season precipitation, the number of consecutive and total dry days, and extreme wet events at the local scale. At the regional scale, we find a positive trend in the duration, but not the magnitude of the MSD, which is dominated by spatially heterogeneous trends and interannual variability linked to large-scale modes of ocean-atmosphere circulation. Although the current climate still reflects predominantly internal variability, some Central American communities are already experiencing significant changes in local characteristics of the MSD. A detailed spatiotemporal understanding of MSD trends and variability can contribute to evidence-based adaptation planning and help reduce the vulnerability of Central American communities to both natural rainfall variability and anthropogenic change.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipUS National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [NSF BCS 0852652, 1263609]; NSFNational Science Foundation (NSF) [P2C2 AGS 1623727]; [AGS 1243125]en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherIOP PUBLISHING LTDen_US
dc.rights© 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltden_US
dc.subjectMidsummer Droughten_US
dc.subjectCentral Americaen_US
dc.subjectagricultureen_US
dc.subjectNorth Atlantic Subtropical Highen_US
dc.subjectCaribbean Low Level Jeten_US
dc.subjecttrendsen_US
dc.titleMultiscale trends and precipitation extremes in the Central American Midsummer Droughten_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.contributor.departmentUniv Arizona, Sch Geog & Deven_US
dc.contributor.departmentUniv Arizona, Lab Tree Ring Resen_US
dc.identifier.journalENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERSen_US
dc.description.collectioninformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.en_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.source.volume14
dc.source.issue12
dc.source.beginpage124016
refterms.dateFOA2019-12-18T18:33:11Z


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