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dc.contributor.authorElmendorf, Sarah C.
dc.contributor.authorCrimmins, Theresa M.
dc.contributor.authorGerst, Katharine L.
dc.contributor.authorWeltzin, Jake F.
dc.date.accessioned2020-01-10T22:26:10Z
dc.date.available2020-01-10T22:26:10Z
dc.date.issued2019-12
dc.identifier.citationElmendorf, S. C., Crimmins, T. M., Gerst, K. L., & Weltzin, J. F. (2019). Time to branch out? Application of hierarchical survival models in plant phenology. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 279, 107694.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0168-1923
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107694
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/636458
dc.description.abstractThe sensitivity of phenology to environmental drivers can vary across geography and species. As such, models developed to predict phenology are typically site- or taxon-specific. Generation of site- and taxon-specific models is limited by the intensive in-situ phenological monitoring effort required to generate sufficient data to parameterize each model. Where in-situ phenological observations exist, the data are often subject to analytical issues due to the limited duration of any individual monitoring program, spotty site- and species-level coverage, lack of standardized methodology, and infrequent or variable census intervals. Together, these characteristics constrain our ability to make phenological inferences outside of select sites and taxa where long-duration, intensive monitoring has occurred. In this study, we leveraged two national, standardized phenology datasets to develop a multi-species and multi-site state-space survival model of the onset of deciduous tree and shrub spring (leaf out) and fall (leaf-color) events across temperate ecoregions of the United States. We used data from two national-scale phenological databases, a 9-year, broadly distributed dataset from the USA National Phenology Network and a 4-year dataset from the National Ecological Observatory Network, to quantify regional and interspecific variation in sensitivity to environmental drivers for both spring and fall leaf phenophases. Spring leaf out was generally promoted by longer days, spring growing degree day accumulation, overwinter chilling, and was suppressed by frost events, whereas fall leaf color was promoted by shorter days and cold accumulation. The sensitivity to most environmental drivers tended to be more variable among species than among the regions as defined here (EPA ecoregions of North America, excluding desert and tropical areas). The results of this study lay the groundwork for incorporating the growing collection of phenological observations into a generalized framework for predicting the transition states for any species, in any location.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipUnited States Geological Survey [G14AC00405, G17AC00405, G18AC00135]en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevier BVen_US
dc.rights© 2019 Published by Elsevier B.V.en_US
dc.subjectCitizen scienceen_US
dc.subjectPhenologyen_US
dc.subjectTemperatureen_US
dc.subjectDay lengthen_US
dc.subjectUSA-NPNen_US
dc.subjectNEONen_US
dc.titleTime to branch out? Application of hierarchical survival models in plant phenologyen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.contributor.departmentUniv Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environmen_US
dc.identifier.journalAGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGYen_US
dc.description.note24 month embargo; available online 20 September 2019.en_US
dc.description.collectioninformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.en_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal accepted manuscripten_US
dc.source.volume279
dc.source.beginpage107694


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