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dc.contributor.authorRobertson, Andrew W.
dc.contributor.authorAcharya, Nachiketa
dc.contributor.authorGoddard, Lisa
dc.contributor.authorPattanaik, D. R.
dc.contributor.authorSahai, A. K.
dc.contributor.authorSingh, K. K.
dc.contributor.authorGhosh, Kripan
dc.contributor.authorAgarwal, Anshul
dc.contributor.authorBuizer, James L.
dc.date.accessioned2020-02-04T16:33:34Z
dc.date.available2020-02-04T16:33:34Z
dc.date.issued2019-12-26
dc.identifier.citationRobertson A. W., Acharya, N., Goddard, L., Pattanaik, D. R.,Sahai, A. K., Singh, K. K., et al. (2019). Subseasonal forecasts of the 2018 Indian summer monsoon over Bihar. Journal of Geophysical Research: atmospheres, 124, 13,861-13,875 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031374en_US
dc.identifier.issn2169-897X
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2019jd031374
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/636891
dc.description.abstractCalibrated probabilistic forecasts of weekly rainfall were developed for the state of Bihar in northern India and issued in real time during the June–September 2018 monsoon period, up to 2 weeks in advance. The forecasts are based on subseasonal forecasts from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction CFSv2 model and were calibrated against observed gridded rainfall fields from the India Meteorological Department using canonical correlation analysis. Hindcasts over the 1999–2010 period exhibit appreciable skill at Week 1 lead (Days 3–9), with some skill at Week 2 (Days 10–16), over Bihar as well as over a larger region. Forecasts were issued in real time during the 2018 Indian summer monsoon season for four districts in Bihar on a 1° grid in tercile probability format every Thursday. Verification of the district‐level real‐time forecasts over the 2018 season is evaluated and moderate skill demonstrated in terms of the Brier and Heidke skill scores, especially for the northern districts and for the below‐normal category. Successful monsoon onset and break phase forecasts in 2018 over Bihar are related to episodes of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, which the model is shown to capture quite well at 1–2 week lead.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNOAA's International Research and Applications Program (IRAP)en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherAMER GEOPHYSICAL UNIONen_US
dc.rightsCopyright © 2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.en_US
dc.rights.urihttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor
dc.titleSubseasonal Forecasts of the 2018 Indian Summer Monsoon Over Biharen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.contributor.departmentUniv Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environmen_US
dc.identifier.journalJOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERESen_US
dc.description.note6 month embargo; published online: 26 December 2019en_US
dc.description.collectioninformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.en_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen_US
dc.identifier.pii10.1029/2019JD031374
dc.source.journaltitleJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
dc.source.volume124
dc.source.issue24
dc.source.beginpage13861
dc.source.endpage13875


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