Extreme temperature events will drive coral decline in the Coral Triangle
AuthorMcManus, Lisa C
Vasconcelos, Vítor V
Levin, Simon A
Thompson, Diane M
Kleypas, Joan A
Castruccio, Frederic S
Curchitser, Enrique N
Watson, James R
AffiliationUniv Arizona, Dept Geosci
MetadataShow full item record
CitationMcManus LC, Vasconcelos VV, Levin SA, et al. Extreme temperature events will drive coral decline in the Coral Triangle. Glob Change Biol. 2020;00:1–14. https: //doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14972
JournalGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
RightsCopyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Collection InformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
AbstractIn light of rapid environmental change, quantifying the contribution of regional- and local-scale drivers of coral persistence is necessary to characterize fully the resilience of coral reef systems. To assess multiscale responses to thermal perturbation of corals in the Coral Triangle (CT), we developed a spatially explicit metacommunity model with coral-algal competition, including seasonal larval dispersal and external spatiotemporal forcing. We tested coral sensitivity in 2,083 reefs across the CT region and surrounding areas under potential future temperature regimes, with and without interannual climate variability, exploring a range of 0.5-2.0 degrees C overall increase in temperature in the system by 2054. We found that among future projections, reef survival probability and mean percent coral cover over time were largely determined by the presence or absence of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) extremes as well as absolute temperature increase. Overall, reefs that experienced SST time series that were filtered to remove interannual variability had approximately double the chance of survival than reefs subjected to unfiltered SST. By the end of the forecast period, the inclusion of thermal anomalies was equivalent to an increase of at least 0.5 degrees C in SST projections without anomalies. Change in percent coral cover varied widely across the region within temperature scenarios, with some reefs experiencing local extinction while others remaining relatively unchanged. Sink strength and current thermal stress threshold were found to be significant drivers of these patterns, highlighting the importance of processes that underlie larval connectivity and bleaching sensitivity in coral networks.
Note12 month embargo; published online: 27 December 2019
VersionFinal accepted manuscript
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