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dc.contributor.authorMcManus, Lisa C
dc.contributor.authorVasconcelos, Vítor V
dc.contributor.authorLevin, Simon A
dc.contributor.authorThompson, Diane M
dc.contributor.authorKleypas, Joan A
dc.contributor.authorCastruccio, Frederic S
dc.contributor.authorCurchitser, Enrique N
dc.contributor.authorWatson, James R
dc.date.accessioned2020-02-24T20:49:21Z
dc.date.available2020-02-24T20:49:21Z
dc.date.issued2019-12-27
dc.identifier.citationMcManus LC, Vasconcelos VV, Levin SA, et al. Extreme temperature events will drive coral decline in the Coral Triangle. Glob Change Biol. 2020;00:1–14. https: //doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14972en_US
dc.identifier.issn1354-1013
dc.identifier.pmid31883173
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/gcb.14972
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/637083
dc.description.abstractIn light of rapid environmental change, quantifying the contribution of regional- and local-scale drivers of coral persistence is necessary to characterize fully the resilience of coral reef systems. To assess multiscale responses to thermal perturbation of corals in the Coral Triangle (CT), we developed a spatially explicit metacommunity model with coral-algal competition, including seasonal larval dispersal and external spatiotemporal forcing. We tested coral sensitivity in 2,083 reefs across the CT region and surrounding areas under potential future temperature regimes, with and without interannual climate variability, exploring a range of 0.5-2.0 degrees C overall increase in temperature in the system by 2054. We found that among future projections, reef survival probability and mean percent coral cover over time were largely determined by the presence or absence of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) extremes as well as absolute temperature increase. Overall, reefs that experienced SST time series that were filtered to remove interannual variability had approximately double the chance of survival than reefs subjected to unfiltered SST. By the end of the forecast period, the inclusion of thermal anomalies was equivalent to an increase of at least 0.5 degrees C in SST projections without anomalies. Change in percent coral cover varied widely across the region within temperature scenarios, with some reefs experiencing local extinction while others remaining relatively unchanged. Sink strength and current thermal stress threshold were found to be significant drivers of these patterns, highlighting the importance of processes that underlie larval connectivity and bleaching sensitivity in coral networks.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherWILEYen_US
dc.rightsCopyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.en_US
dc.subjectEl Niñoen_US
dc.subjectclimate changeen_US
dc.subjectclimate variabilityen_US
dc.subjectcoral persistenceen_US
dc.subjectmetacommunityen_US
dc.subjectresilienceen_US
dc.subjectseascapeen_US
dc.titleExtreme temperature events will drive coral decline in the Coral Triangleen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.contributor.departmentUniv Arizona, Dept Geoscien_US
dc.identifier.journalGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGYen_US
dc.description.note12 month embargo; published online: 27 December 2019en_US
dc.description.collectioninformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.en_US
dc.eprint.versionFinal accepted manuscripten_US
dc.source.journaltitleGlobal change biology
dc.source.countryEngland


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