How well do the spring indices predict phenological activity across plant species?
AffiliationUniv Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environm
MetadataShow full item record
CitationGerst, K.L., Crimmins, T.M., Posthumus, E.E. et al. How well do the spring indices predict phenological activity across plant species?. Int J Biometeorol (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01879-z
Rights© ISB 2020
Collection InformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at email@example.com.
AbstractThe spring indices, models that represent the onset of spring season biological activity, were developed using a long-term observational record from the mid-to-late twentieth century of three species of lilacs and honeysuckles contributed by volunteer observers across the nation. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) produces and freely delivers maps of spring index onset dates at fine spatial scale for the USA. These maps are used widely in natural resource planning and management applications. The extent to which the models represent activity in a broad suite of plant species is not well documented. In this study, we used a rich record of observational plant phenology data (37,819 onset records) collected in recent years (1981-2017) to evaluate how well gridded maps of the spring index models predict leaf and flowering onset dates in (a) 19 species of ecologically important, broadly distributed deciduous trees and shrubs, and (b) the lilac and honeysuckle species used to construct the models. The extent to which the spring indices predicted vegetative and reproductive phenology varied by species and with latitude, with stronger relationships revealed for shrubs than trees and with the Bloom Index compared to the Leaf Index, and reduced concordance between the indices at higher latitudes. These results allow us to use the indices as indicators of when to expect activity across widely distributed species and can serve as a yardstick to assess how future changes in the timing of spring will impact a broad array of trees and shrubs across the USA.
Note12 month embargo; published online: 27 February 2020
VersionFinal accepted manuscript
- Multiscale modeling of spring phenology across Deciduous Forests in the Eastern United States.
- Authors: Melaas EK, Friedl MA, Richardson AD
- Issue date: 2016 Feb
- Climate change and shifts in spring phenology of three horticultural woody perennials in northeastern USA.
- Authors: Wolfe DW, Schwartz MD, Lakso AN, Otsuki Y, Pool RM, Shaulis NJ
- Issue date: 2005 May
- USA National Phenology Network's volunteer-contributed observations yield predictive models of phenological transitions.
- Authors: Crimmins TM, Crimmins MA, Gerst KL, Rosemartin AH, Weltzin JF
- Issue date: 2017
- Temperature alone does not explain phenological variation of diverse temperate plants under experimental warming.
- Authors: Marchin RM, Salk CF, Hoffmann WA, Dunn RR
- Issue date: 2015 Aug
- Estimating the onset of spring from a complex phenology database: trade-offs across geographic scales.
- Authors: Gerst KL, Kellermann JL, Enquist CA, Rosemartin AH, Denny EG
- Issue date: 2016 Mar