Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction
Author
Pendergrass, Angeline G.Meehl, Gerald A.
Pulwarty, Roger
Hobbins, Mike
Hoell, Andrew
AghaKouchak, Amir
Bonfils, Céline J. W.
Gallant, Ailie J. E.
Hoerling, Martin
Hoffmann, David
Kaatz, Laurna
Lehner, Flavio
Llewellyn, Dagmar
Mote, Philip
Neale, Richard B.
Overpeck, Jonathan T.

Sheffield, Amanda
Stahl, Kerstin
Svoboda, Mark
Wheeler, Matthew C.
Wood, Andrew W.
Woodhouse, Connie A.
Affiliation
Univ Arizona, Sch Geog & DevIssue Date
2020-03
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NATURE PUBLISHING GROUPCitation
Pendergrass, A.G., Meehl, G.A., Pulwarty, R. et al. Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 191–199 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0Journal
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGERights
This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply 2020.Collection Information
This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.Abstract
Flash droughts, which develop over the course of weeks, are difficult to forecast given the current state of subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. This Perspective offers operational and research definitions, places them in the broader context of climate and suggests avenues for future research. Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.Note
Public domain articleISSN
1758-678XEISSN
1758-6798Version
Final published versionae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0
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Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply 2020.