Cities, Regions, and Rebels: The Impact of Urbanization on Conflict in the Developing World

Abstract

The world's population is quickly urbanizing, a trend largely driven by the growth of cities in the Global South. In my dissertation, I analyze the consequences of this demographic phenomenon for civil conflict, another phenomenon associated with developing countries. In this research, I present a global study at the country level, showing that contrary to many people's concerns, urbanization does not usually lead to higher levels of urban-based civil conflict and may alleviate conflict violence in rural areas. Using geospatial data on conflict and demographics, I analyze the urbanization-conflict relationship at the subnational level, showing how these trends impact provincial and local administrative units. This includes a chapter specifically focused on local-level impacts of urbanization on India’s Naxalite insurgency, a long-running armed conflict affecting a wide swathe of the country’s territory. Through my analysis, I find that contrary to the fears of many scholars and policymakers, urbanization does not normally create a risk of armed conflict communities in the developing world. Even when an area is experiencing economic decline, most models analyzed in this project show that economic hardship that coincides with urbanization does not increase the risk of conflict violence. Urbanization often corresponds with a decrease in the risk of armed conflict, especially for cases of high-fatality conflict events. The possible pacifying effect of urbanization may come from the ability of cities to provide citizens with increased economic and political opportunities and governments with a venue conducive to exercising their administrative capacities. Areas nearby major cities are often much less to experience armed conflict compared to more remote areas. Communities within a urbanizing societies may also see a decline in their risk of conflict if major cities nearby are growing significantly or if they are located in an area where the government has more security forces in place or is able to extract higher amounts of taxes. This study is not a comprehensive examination of all factors that may affect the security of urbanizing societies, but it does provide a much clearer idea of what urbanization might mean for the risk of warfare in developing countries. The analysis presented in subsequent chapters provide an encouraging indication that despite all the social, economic, and political challenges associated with demographic changes, urbanization is often associated in a decline in conflict risk. I conclude with discussion of extensions for this line of research as well as policy recommendations for societies hoping to mitigate possibility of violence.