Predicting Dengue Transmission Risk in Aedes aegypti Populations at the Edge of Their Geographic Range

Abstract

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is an important vector of several viruses that cause disease in humans. Due to a lack of available vaccines, disease prevention through mosquito surveillance and control remains the standard for limiting transmission. The studies encompassed in this dissertation tested the viability of incorporating measures of mosquito body size into models (that include weather variables) for predicting changes in a population's transmission potential via effects on mosquito survival and on number of dengue cases. The first study was a laboratory experiment which demonstrated that body size in Ae. aegypti increased our model's capacity to predict age at death beyond using temperature during larval development and relative humidity during adulthood. The second study analyzed field-collected Ae. aegypti and showed that, again, measures of body size increased our capacity to predict age beyond simply using temperature during larval development and relative humidity during adulthood. In the third and final study, models including body size were used to directly predict variation in the number of dengue cases reported near the location where the mosquitoes were captured. Results showed that body size increased predictive capacity for the number of dengue cases beyond using temperature, water vapor pressure, and mosquito abundance alone.