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    Continental‐scale tree‐ring‐based projection of Douglas‐fir growth: Testing the limits of space‐for‐time substitution

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    Name:
    Klesse et al. 2020_preprint_PSME ...
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    Final Accepted Manuscript
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    Author
    Klesse, Stefan
    DeRose, Robert Justin
    Babst, Flurin
    Black, Bryan A.
    Anderegg, Leander D. L.
    Axelson, Jodi
    Ettinger, Ailene
    Griesbauer, Hardy
    Guiterman, Christopher H.
    Harley, Grant
    Harvey, Jill E.
    Lo, Yueh‐Hsin
    Lynch, Ann M.
    O'Connor, Christopher
    Restaino, Christina
    Sauchyn, Dave
    Shaw, John D.
    Smith, Dan J.
    Wood, Lisa
    Villanueva‐Díaz, Jose
    Evans, Margaret E. K.
    Show allShow less
    Affiliation
    Univ Arizona, Lab Tree Ring Res
    Issue Date
    2020-06-30
    Keywords
    carbon sequestration
    climate sensitivity
    Douglas-fir
    forest inventory
    growth projection
    mixed-effects model
    tree growth
    tree ring
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Publisher
    Wiley
    Citation
    Klesse, S, DeRose, RJ, Babst, F, et al. Continental‐scale tree‐ring‐based projection of Douglas‐fir growth: Testing the limits of space‐for‐time substitution. Glob Change Biol. 2020; 26: 5146– 5163. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15170
    Journal
    Global Change Biology
    Rights
    Copyright © 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
    Collection Information
    This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.
    Abstract
    A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree‐ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space‐for‐time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed‐effects model to capture ring‐width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas‐fir's range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi‐arid interior. Ring‐width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas‐fir's distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed‐effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook's 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree‐ring networks and results as a calibration target for next‐generation vegetation models.
    Note
    12 month embargo; first published: 20 May 2020
    ISSN
    1354-1013
    EISSN
    1365-2486
    PubMed ID
    32433807
    DOI
    10.1111/gcb.15170
    Version
    Final accepted manuscript
    Sponsors
    SK acknowledges the support of the USDA-AFRI grant 2016-67003-24944; MEKE was supported by the National Science Foundation under award DBI-1802893. FB acknowledges statutory funds from the W. Szafer Institute of Botany PAS, as well as support from the project “Inside out” (#POIR.04.04.00-00-5F85/18-00) funded by the HOMING programme of the Foundation for Polish Science, co-financed by the European Union under the European Regional Development Fund.
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1111/gcb.15170
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