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    • Rangeland Ecology & Management, Volume 63 (2010)
    • Rangeland Ecology & Management, Volume 63, Number 4 (July 2010)
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    Economics of Flexible Versus Conservative Stocking Strategies to Manage Climate Variability Risk

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    Author
    Torell, L. Allen
    Murugan, Subramanian
    Ramirez, Octavio A.
    Issue Date
    2010-07-01
    Keywords
    Bouteloua gracilis
    climate forecast
    drought
    grazing flexibility
    linear programming
    stocking strategies
    
    Metadata
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    Citation
    Torell, L. A., Murugan, S., & Ramirez, O. A. (2010). Economics of flexible versus conservative stocking strategies to manage climate variability risk. Rangeland Ecology & Management, 63(4), 415-425.
    Publisher
    Society for Range Management
    Journal
    Rangeland Ecology & Management
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10150/642802
    DOI
    10.2111/REM-D-09-00131.1
    Additional Links
    https://rangelands.org/
    Abstract
    Recommended strategies for dealing with drought include maintaining a conservative stocking rate, maintaining grazing flexibility by having yearlings as one of multiple enterprises on the ranch, and leaving a significant amount of herbaceous production at the end of the grazing season. We perform an economic analysis of these grazing strategies using a bio-economic multiperiod linear programming model with variable annual forage production and beef prices. We evaluate the economics of conservative versus flexible grazing where stock numbers are adjusted to match forage conditions. The deterministic model estimates that a flexible grazing strategy could nearly double net returns relative to a conservative strategy, but realizing this substantial economic potential means higher production costs, and it depends on a quality climate forecast that is not currently available. Maintaining grazing flexibility was determined to be very important for managing variable forage conditions, and its importance increased with the level of variability. Without annual variation in forage production, over 80% of available forage would optimally be allocated to cow-calf production. As forage variability increased to levels observed on the arid rangelands of the western United States, a 50:50 forage allocation between cow-calf and yearling enterprises was found to be optimal, but optimal cow numbers decreased over time as dry conditions force herd reductions. As compared to a cow-calf ranch only, adding flexible yearling enterprises increased average annual net ranch returns by 14% with conservative stocking and by up to 66% with flexible grazing. Herd expansion beyond a conservative level should occur with yearlings because adjusting cow numbers is too expensive relative to the potential short-term gain, even if forage conditions are known with certainty. 
    Type
    text
    Article
    Language
    en
    ISSN
    0022-409X
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.2111/REM-D-09-00131.1
    Scopus Count
    Collections
    Rangeland Ecology & Management, Volume 63, Number 4 (July 2010)

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