TO RUN OR NOT TO RUN: THE EFFICACY OF ELECTION BOYCOTTS AS AN OPPOSITION TOOL IN HYBRID REGIMES

Abstract

This paper examines the effectiveness of election boycotting as a strategy for pro-democracy factions that oppose a hybrid authoritarian regime. Part 1 provides context for the current political crisis in the case study country. Part 2 provides analysis ofthe efficacy of election boycotts and how their usage, coupled with regime tactics, weakens democratic opposition. This evaluation is made via a case study of election boycotts conducted by pro-democratic factions in Venezuela in 2005 and 2018. The case study examines the political situations surrounding each boycott, contextualizing the relative political strength of both regime and non-regime parties, as well as the wider economic and political context of each election. From each scenario, judgments are then made regarding the relative political power of the regime and the pro-democracy factions after there was an election boycott. The analysis shows that after each election boycott by pro-democracy factions, regime strength was increased, relative to oppositional groups that were left in a far weaker position. This finding disputes the widely accepted argument that election boycotts harm the legitimacy of hybrid authoritarian regime types, thus weakening their hold on power. Finally, Part 3 explores possible future paths forward for the future of the Venezuelan state and people.