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    New Methods and Critical Aspects in Bayesian Mathematics for 14C Calibration

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    Author
    Steier, Peter
    Rom, Werner
    Puchegger, Stephan
    Issue Date
    2001-01-01
    Keywords
    sensitivity analysis
    Bayesian analysis
    Iron Age
    probability
    case studies
    mathematical methods
    mathematical models
    statistical analysis
    applications
    archaeology
    Central Europe
    data processing
    Europe
    Cenozoic
    methods
    C 14
    carbon
    isotopes
    radioactive isotopes
    absolute age
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    Citation
    Steier, P., Rom, W., & Puchegger, S. (2001). New methods and critical aspects in Bayesian mathematics for 14C calibration. Radiocarbon, 43(2A), 373-380.
    Publisher
    Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona
    Journal
    Radiocarbon
    Description
    From the 17th International Radiocarbon Conference held in Jerusalem, Israel, June 18-23, 2000.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10150/654541
    DOI
    10.1017/S0033822200038236
    Additional Links
    http://radiocarbon.webhost.uits.arizona.edu/
    Abstract
    The probabilistic radiocarbon calibration approach, which largely has replaced the intercept method in 14C dating, is based on the so-called Bayes' theorem (Bayes 1763). Besides single-sample calibration, Bayesian mathematics also supplies tools for combining 14C results of many samples with independent archaeological information such as typology or stratigraphy (Buck et al. 1996). However, specific assumptions in the "prior probabilities", used to transform the archaeological information into mathematical probability distributions, may bias the results (Steier and Rom 2000). A general technique for guarding against such a bias is "sensitivity analysis", in which a range of possible prior probabilities is tested. Only results that prove robust in this analysis should be used. We demonstrate the impact of this method for an assumed, yet realistic case of stratigraphically ordered samples from the Hallstatt period, i.e. The Early Iron Age in Central Europe.
    Type
    Proceedings
    text
    Language
    en
    ISSN
    0033-8222
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1017/S0033822200038236
    Scopus Count
    Collections
    Radiocarbon, Volume 43, Number 2A (2001

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