An Assessment of Political Shocks: Considering the Domestic and International Consequences

Abstract

The aim of this dissertation is to produce a systematic assessment of political shocks and their potential consequences. Political shocks are important and significant phenomena within international politics. However, no overarching study of shocks currently exists and consequently the topic has remained underdeveloped relative to other important concepts within international relations. Despite their importance, what qualifies as a political shock and whether the dynamics associated with the concept are generalizable remains unclear. As such, I ask how can political shocks be observed taking place and what are the potential domestic and international consequences? To address these questions, I develop a framework of political shocks which centers on acute periods of state instability to reflect when states have experienced political shocks. When such destabilization is present, path dependencies are disrupted creating new environments in which states and their communities operate within. As such, political shocks serve as challenges to the existing status quo while states must continue to manage as effectively as possible in the face of such challenges. I also incorporate elements of opportunity and willingness to understand the different dynamics within these complex environments in terms of domestic and international security dimensions and outcomes. I pursue a dual empirical assessment of both outcomes by evaluating whether international conflict in the form of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) as well as the level of human rights abuses, specifically physical integrity violations, are affected via a series of negative binomial and ordered logistic regressions. Overall, I find that both domestic and international outcomes are impacted by political shocks. When states experience shocks, both the extent of international conflict experienced, and level human rights abuses that take place increase. I also observe similar effects when taking into consideration additional interactive factors of domestic and neighboring unrest. The outcomes of this project suggest that political shocks pose a significant threat across security domains and to various outcomes of interest. The work produced is also relevant for our present-day dynamics. Critical events that have the capacity to destabilize domestic conditions and politics and which potentially have regional and global reach continue to take place. As such, it is not only pertinent but also necessary to establish a way in which to study these events and their dynamics in a systematic manner. By doing so, we not only can better understand the potential effects of such critical events but also work toward identifying strategies and forming politics to be address them in the future.