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dc.contributor.authorWoodhouse, C.A.
dc.contributor.authorSmith, R.M.
dc.contributor.authorMcAfee, S.A.
dc.contributor.authorPederson, G.T.
dc.contributor.authorMcCabe, G.J.
dc.contributor.authorMiller, W.P.
dc.contributor.authorCsank, A.
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-05T02:34:51Z
dc.date.available2021-06-05T02:34:51Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.citationWoodhouse, C. A., Smith, R. M., McAfee, S. A., Pederson, G. T., McCabe, G. J., Miller, W. P., & Csank, A. (2021). Upper Colorado River Basin 20th century droughts under 21st century warming: Plausible scenarios for the future. Climate Services, 21, 100206.
dc.identifier.issn2405-8807
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100206
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/659737
dc.description.abstractThis study builds on a collaboration with a water resource management community of practice in the Upper Colorado River Basin to develop scenarios of future drought and assess impacts on water supply reliability. Water managers are concerned with the impacts of warming on water year streamflow, but uncertainties in projections of climate make the application of these projections to planning a challenge. Instead, water managers considered a plausible scenario for future drought to be historical droughts to which warming is added. We used a simple statistical model of water year streamflow with temperatures increased by 1 °C to 4 °C, and then examined reductions in flow and runoff efficiency (RE) with each degree of warming for the six droughts defined in the observed streamflow record. In order to place these results into a management context, we employed an existing framework for system reliability, and in particular, a vulnerability assessment for water delivery metrics. Using modeled streamflow resulting from 1 °C to 4 °C warming, we found vulnerable condition thresholds for the two water delivery metrics assessed, Upper Basin Shortage and Lees Ferry Deficit, were crossed relatively infrequently at +1 °C, but with a substantially increased frequency under additional warming. Results are more relevant to resource management because the impacts of warming on Upper Colorado River streamflow were assessed in the context of management metrics and vulnerability thresholds, in collaboration with members of the water management community of practice. © 2020 The Author(s)
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier B.V.
dc.rightsCopyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectClimate warming
dc.subjectDrought
dc.subjectRunoff efficiency
dc.subjectStreamflow
dc.subjectUpper Colorado River Basin
dc.titleUpper Colorado River Basin 20th century droughts under 21st century warming: Plausible scenarios for the future
dc.typeArticle
dc.typetext
dc.contributor.departmentUniversity of Arizona
dc.identifier.journalClimate Services
dc.description.noteOpen access journal
dc.description.collectioninformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.
dc.eprint.versionFinal published version
dc.source.journaltitleClimate Services
refterms.dateFOA2021-06-05T02:34:51Z


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Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).