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    Quantifying the Occurrence of Record Hot Years Through Normalized Warming Trends

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    2020GL091626.pdf
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    Author
    Zeng, X.
    Reeves Eyre, J.E.J.
    Dixon, R.D.
    Arevalo, J.
    Affiliation
    Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona
    Issue Date
    2021
    Keywords
    Arctic amplification
    Earth system models
    extreme heat
    normalized warming trends
    tropical amplification
    warming trends
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Publisher
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Citation
    Zeng, X., Reeves Eyre, J. E. J., Dixon, R. D., & Arevalo, J. (2021). Quantifying the Occurrence of Record Hot Years Through Normalized Warming Trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(10).
    Journal
    Geophysical Research Letters
    Rights
    © 2021 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
    Collection Information
    This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.
    Abstract
    Surface air temperature trends and extreme events are of global concern and they are related. Here, we show that the occurrence of record hot years over different latitudes from 1960 to 2019 are more strongly correlated with the observational annual mean temperature trends normalized by internal variability. Compared with the raw trends showing Arctic amplification, the normalized trends show a tropical amplification over land. Two hot spots with more frequent occurrence of record hot years are identified: northern hemisphere ocean (vs. land) and southern hemisphere tropical land (vs. mid- and high-latitude lands). Ensemble mean results from 32 Earth system models agree with observations better than individual models, but they do not reproduce observed large differences in correlations across latitudes between normalized trends and record-breaking events over land versus ocean. Our results enable the quantification of record hot year occurrence through normalized warming trends and provide new metrics for model evaluation and improvement. © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
    Note
    6 month embargo; first published: 21 May 2021
    ISSN
    0094-8276
    DOI
    10.1029/2020GL091626
    Version
    Final published version
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1029/2020GL091626
    Scopus Count
    Collections
    UA Faculty Publications

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