Stocks for the long run? Evidence from a broad sample of developed markets
Affiliation
Eller College of Management, University of ArizonaIssue Date
2021-07
Metadata
Show full item recordPublisher
Elsevier BVCitation
Anarkulova, A., Cederburg, S., & O’Doherty, M. S. (2021). Stocks for the long run? Evidence from a broad sample of developed markets. Journal of Financial Economics.Journal
Journal of Financial EconomicsRights
© 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Collection Information
This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.Abstract
We characterize the distribution of long-term equity returns based on the historical record of stock market performance in a broad cross section of 39 developed countries over the period from 1841 to 2019. Our comprehensive sample mitigates concerns over survivor and easy data biases that plague other work in this area. A bootstrap simulation analysis implies substantial uncertainty about long-horizon stock market outcomes, and we estimate a 12% chance that a diversified investor with a 30-year investment horizon will lose relative to inflation. The results contradict the conventional advice that stocks are safe investments over long holding periods. © 2021 Elsevier B.V.Note
24 month embargo; available online 5 July 2021ISSN
0304-405XVersion
Final accepted manuscriptae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.06.040
